Brexit's Lingering Effects: Adjustments in Interest Rate Policies

Brexit's Lingering Effects: Adjustments in Interest Rate Policies

Author Malcolm Henshaw
July 2021
16 min read

As we move through July 2021, the United Kingdom continues to navigate the far-reaching consequences of Brexit. While the initial transition period has ended, its effects remain deeply embedded in financial markets, influencing everything from trade policy to currency valuation.

One of the most closely watched areas of economic policy has been the Bank of England's response to post-Brexit uncertainties—particularly in the realm of interest rate adjustments and lending conditions. This article explores how these monetary policy shifts are reshaping the financial sector, with a special focus on lending practices and borrowing trends. As banks and financial institutions recalibrate their strategies, borrowers, investors, and businesses are witnessing significant shifts in credit conditions, risk management approaches, and regulatory oversight. Understanding these changes is key to making informed financial decisions in the evolving post-Brexit economy.

Key Brexit Milestones Affecting Financial Policy

January 2020

UK officially leaves the EU, beginning the transition period

December 2020

UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement finalized

January 2021

End of transition period with loss of passporting rights for financial services

July 2021

Ongoing adjustments to monetary policy as Brexit effects continue

Brexit and Financial Policy Adjustments

Key Economic Indicators (July 2021)

0.1%

BoE Base Rate

2.5%

Inflation Rate

4.8%

Unemployment

1.38

GBP/EUR Rate

The aftermath of Brexit has presented a complex financial landscape, requiring policymakers to strike a delicate balance between economic stability and growth. The Bank of England, in particular, has played a central role in shaping monetary policy to mitigate volatility and maintain market confidence. Adjustments to interest rate policies have been a cornerstone of this strategy, with an emphasis on ensuring liquidity, controlling inflation, and stabilizing lending conditions.

The approach thus far has been one of caution. While the economy shows signs of recovery from both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainties remain. Inflation concerns have prompted speculation about potential rate hikes, yet the central bank has been reluctant to act too aggressively, mindful of the fragile economic environment. By maintaining a steady hand on interest rates, policymakers aim to provide businesses and consumers with the stability needed to plan for the future while keeping the cost of borrowing manageable.

Pre-Brexit Financial Policy
  • EU-integrated regulatory framework
  • Automatic passporting rights
  • Harmonized compliance standards
  • Shared financial oversight mechanisms
Post-Brexit Financial Policy
  • Autonomous UK regulatory approach
  • Case-by-case equivalence decisions
  • UK-specific compliance requirements
  • Independent financial oversight

Additionally, financial regulators are closely monitoring how Brexit-induced shifts in trade and investment flows affect banking operations. The loss of automatic passporting rights for UK-based financial services firms has required a reassessment of cross-border lending and regulatory compliance. In response, financial institutions have had to establish new frameworks for conducting business within the European Union, further complicating the lending landscape.

Impact on Lending and Borrowing

Refined Risk Models

More stringent lending criteria and higher risk premiums on certain loan products due to economic uncertainty.

Technology Integration

Advanced data analytics, AI-driven underwriting, and real-time credit assessments improving risk evaluation.

Alternative Funding

Growth in alternative lending platforms, peer-to-peer networks, and government-backed financing programs.

For borrowers, these monetary policy adjustments have created a dynamic and evolving credit environment. While low interest rates have kept borrowing costs relatively attractive, lenders have become more selective in their underwriting processes. The increased uncertainty surrounding economic growth has led financial institutions to refine their risk models, resulting in more stringent lending criteria and, in some cases, higher risk premiums on certain loan products.

The role of technology in lending has also expanded, as banks and fintech firms alike rely on advanced data analytics to assess creditworthiness more precisely. AI-driven underwriting, real-time credit assessments, and machine learning models are being leveraged to improve risk evaluation. This trend has led to a more personalized lending experience, with loan terms increasingly tailored to individual borrower profiles rather than broad, one-size-fits-all criteria.

ANALYST PERSPECTIVE
" The UK's post-Brexit lending landscape is characterized by technological innovation countering regulatory complexity. Lenders who master this balance will thrive in the new environment. "

- UK Financial Services Report, July 2021

Businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs), face a unique set of challenges in securing financing. Many SMEs, which have traditionally depended on EU-based investors and financial support mechanisms, must now seek alternative funding sources. As a result, there has been a notable increase in the popularity of alternative lending platforms, peer-to-peer lending networks, and government-backed financing programs designed to support businesses during this transition period.

Shifts in Investment Strategies

Fixed-Income Markets

Investors closely monitoring the Bank of England's policy stance for signs of rate hikes that would impact bond yields and portfolio allocations.

Cautious positioning

Property Markets

Residential real estate showing resilience with low interest rates and sustained demand, while commercial properties face regional volatility.

Mixed performance

Growth Sectors

Investors increasingly focused on technology, healthcare, and sustainable energy sectors for long-term growth despite economic uncertainty.

Strong opportunity

Investors, too, have had to adjust their strategies in response to Brexit-related financial changes. The uncertainty surrounding trade agreements, currency fluctuations, and economic growth prospects has influenced risk assessments across multiple asset classes. Fixed-income investors, for example, are closely watching the Bank of England's policy stance, as any indication of rate hikes could impact bond yields and portfolio allocations.

Meanwhile, property markets have remained resilient despite initial concerns about Brexit's impact on real estate investments. Low interest rates and sustained demand for housing have helped stabilize the sector, though commercial real estate has experienced some volatility, particularly in regions that were heavily reliant on EU-linked business activity. Investors looking for stability have increasingly turned to sectors such as technology, healthcare, and sustainable energy, which are expected to see long-term growth despite economic uncertainty.

Currency Markets

Volatile

GBP/EUR and GBP/USD rates continue to fluctuate in response to Brexit developments and policy announcements.

7% fluctuation range in GBP/EUR since January 2021

Equity Markets

Recovering

UK stocks showing resilience with selective sector growth despite ongoing Brexit uncertainties.

FTSE 100 up 10.2% YTD as of July 2021

Future Outlook

Key Trends to Watch

  • Potential interest rate hikes in response to growing inflationary pressures

  • UK-specific regulatory frameworks diverging from EU standards

  • Continued evolution of fintech solutions addressing cross-border financing challenges

  • Growing emphasis on sustainable finance and ESG criteria in lending practices

  • UK's efforts to establish new international financial partnerships beyond the EU

Looking ahead, the evolution of UK monetary policy will be closely linked to broader economic trends. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether inflationary pressures necessitate an interest rate hike, or if continued economic recovery allows for an extended period of low rates. Either scenario will have significant implications for lending, borrowing, and investment decisions.

Additionally, regulatory developments will play a key role in shaping financial markets post-Brexit. The UK government has indicated a willingness to diverge from certain EU financial regulations, potentially leading to new opportunities and risks for market participants. The challenge for policymakers will be to strike the right balance between fostering innovation and maintaining financial stability, particularly as the UK seeks to position itself as a global financial hub independent of the EU.

One area to watch is the increasing emphasis on sustainable finance and ESG (environmental, social, and governance) criteria. As global attention shifts toward responsible investing, UK regulators may introduce new guidelines to ensure that financial institutions prioritize sustainability in their lending and investment practices. This trend could open new doors for green financing initiatives and socially responsible investment products.

Conclusion

The UK's post-Brexit financial landscape remains a work in progress, with interest rate policies playing a central role in shaping economic stability and growth. While the Bank of England's cautious approach has provided a measure of consistency, ongoing challenges—including inflation concerns, regulatory adjustments, and shifting trade dynamics—continue to influence financial decision-making.

For borrowers and lenders alike, the evolving credit conditions present both challenges and opportunities. Financial institutions are refining their risk models, leveraging technology to enhance credit assessments, and exploring alternative lending solutions. Meanwhile, investors are navigating a changing market environment, seeking opportunities that align with the new economic reality.

Ultimately, the adjustments in monetary policy and financial regulations signal a long-term commitment to building a resilient and adaptive financial system. While the full impact of Brexit will continue to unfold in the coming years, the ongoing evolution of interest rate policies and lending practices will be key in shaping the UK's economic trajectory. By staying informed and adaptable, market participants can position themselves to thrive in this new era of financial transformation.

Financial Insights Team

Malcolm Henshaw

Specialist in financial risk management with 15+ years at leading global banks.

Brexit Financial Impact

  • Loss of passporting rights affecting 5,500+ UK firms

  • Approximately 7,500 jobs moved from UK to EU financial hubs

  • £1.3 trillion in financial assets transferred to EU locations

  • 40% decline in EU-UK financial services trade since Brexit

  • 23% increase in UK fintech investment (H1 2021)

Ready to Get Started?

Check your rate in minutes with no impact on your credit score.